CYCLIC DYNAMICS OF INFLATION: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Alexander Protasov; Tatyana Kotcofana; Polina Stazhkova

doi:10.12955/cbup.v5.956

Alexander Protasov St. Petersburg State University
Tatyana Kotcofana St. Petersburg State University
Polina Stazhkova St. Petersburg State University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12955/cbup.v5.956

Keywords: inflation, cycles, spectral analysis, spectral density function

Abstract

The paper is dedicated to the study of nonlinear dynamics of inflation. We hypothesize that in the second half of the twentieth century, inflation cycles replaced the pre-existing inflation-deflation cycles. This hypothesis is based on the study of data about price levels in various countries of the world for the period of 1950 to 2016. The paper shows some results of a spectral analysis that was applied to the dynamic series of prices. The results of the spectral analysis confirmed the hypothesis about the existence of inflation cycles.

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