Dynamics Of Growth In Human Population: The Effect Of Infectious Diseases
Abstract
In this paper, we present a new approach to modeling and analyzing the dynamics of growth in human population. Our analysis clearly shows that by now human population should have long reached and surpassed the 7 billion mark. The analysis also suggests that there possibly a whole array of factors hampering the growth of human population with infectious diseases being probably the most important one. The paper describes the most dangerous infectious diseases in human history and hypothesizes that they might be regarded as the “hidden factor” behind slowing down the exponential growth of human population. We conclude by proclaiming that infectious diseases might act as a natural mechanism of clearing out human population and therefore perform the role of the cleaning mechanismReferences
Anderson, R.M., Ray, R.M., 1992, Infectious diseases of humans:dynamics and control. Oxford University Press, p. 1768.
Andersson, H., Britton, T., 2000, Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis. Springer, pp. 1137.
Bryson, B., 2005, A short history of nearly everything: Special Illustrated Edition. Doubleday Canada, pp. 1624.
Diamond, J., 1992, The Arrow of Disease. Discover, October. Retrieved from: http://discovermagazine.com/1992/oct/thearrowofdiseas137.
IUCN, 2012, Red List of Threatened Species. Retrieved from:http://www.iucnredlist.org/
Kapitsa, S., 2010, Growth paradox: The Laws of human development.М.: Alpina nonfiction, pp. 1192.
Malthus T.R., 1978, An essay on the principle of population. Oxford World's Classics reprint, pp. 1144.
McEvedy, C., Jones, R., 1978, Atlas of World Population History. Facts on File, New York, pp. 1368.
Mollison, D., 1995, Epidemic models: their structure and relation to data. Cambridge University Press, pp.1424.
Munz, P. Hudea, I., Imad, J., and Smith?, R.J., 2009, When zombies attack!: Mathematical modelling of an outbreak of zombie infection, in Tchuenche, J.M. and Chiyaka, C. (eds,), Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress, pp.133150.
National Geographic Magazine, 2011, Special series: 7 billion. Retrieved from: http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/7billion
The Cambridge Ancient History, 2011, Volume I, part 1, in Edwards, I., Gadd, C., Hammond, N. (eds.), Cambridge Histories Online, Cambridge University Press, pp. 1720.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 1999, The World at Six Billion. Retrieved from: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm
United Nations, 2012, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 1950–2050 estimates (only medium variants shown). Retrieved from: http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm
World Population Prospect, 2011 The 2010 Revision Database (United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs), May 3, 2011.
Retrieved from: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/ index.htm
Worldometers, 2011, Real time world statistic. Retrieved from:www.worldometers.com
Copyright information
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (Creative Commons Attribution License 3.0 - CC BY 3.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
info@cbuni.cz, www.cbuni.cz, ojs.journals.cz